Quinnipiac University released a poll of likely voters early Wednesday showing the Florida gubernatorial contest remains very dirty and very close.
Gov. Rick Scott leads with 44 percent followed by former Gov. Charlie Crist, the Democratic candidate, with 42 percent. Libertarian Adrian Wyllie continues to be a factor, taking 8 percent in the poll. Other candidates register 1 percent while 5 percent of voters are undecided.
When Wyllie is taken out of the race, Scott continues to lead with 46 percent; Crist gets 44 percent in that scenario.
The poll shows 81 percent of those surveyed are certain who they will vote for with less than six weeks remaining in the contest. Scott’s base is firm with 83 percent of his supporters saying they will back him no matter what. Crist’s base is also secure with 82 percent planning to vote for the Democrat no matter what happens. Wyllie’s support is less secure — only 67 percent say they are certain they will vote for the Libertarian; 32 percent could vote for someone else.
Peter Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll, said voters backing Wyllie and independents — who break 44 percent for Scott, 37 percent for Crist and 11 percent for Wyllie — will determine the race.
“The two voter groups that will tell the tale of the election are independent voters and those who are backing Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie,” said Brown on Wednesday. “Gov. Rick Scott and former Gov. Charlie Crist are doing about the same with their respective party bases and former Republican Crist is not having any trouble being accepted by members of his new party.
“Wyllie voters are the bigger unknown because there is little way of predicting if they will stay with the third-party challenger or decide to switch to Scott or Crist in order to be with a winner,” Brown added. “At this point, neither major-party candidate is doing markedly better as a second choice of Wyllie voters. It is also worth considering that there is a consensus that negative campaigning tends to be a turnoff more to the very people who seem to hold the keys to the kingdom — independents and third-party voters.”
Both of the major-party candidates are upside down in the poll. While 42 percent have a favorable opinion of Scott, 48 percent see him as unfavorable. Crist does slightly worse with 41 percent seeing him as favorable and 49 percent viewing him in an unfavorable light. Wyllie remains largely unknown with 86 percent saying they don’t know enough about him, while 8 percent see him as favorable and 4 percent as unfavorable.
Voters see neither Scott nor Crist as honest and trustworthy, according to the poll. Only 37 percent say Crist is honest and trustworthy, while 49 percent say he is not. A slim majority — 51 percent — say Scott is not honest and trustworthy; 39 percent say he is.
“When fewer than four in 10 voters think both the Democratic and Republican candidates for governor are honest, you know this has been one of the nastiest races in state history,” said Brown. “They have been throwing so much mud that they both are covered in it.”
Half of those surveyed — 50 percent — say Scott does not understand the problems of average Floridians, while 42 percent say he does. Though 46 percent say Crist understands the problems of everyday Floridians, 45 percent think he doesn’t.
Scott is viewed as a strong leader with 58 percent saying he is one, and barely a third — 34 percent — saying he is not. Voters are more divided on Crist, with 46 percent saying he is a strong leader; 44 percent saying he is not.
The poll of 991 likely voters was taken Sept. 17-22 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
