A new poll shows Libertarian Adrian Wyllie is hurting Gov. Rick Scott’s chances against former Gov. Charlie Crist. Most polls have shown Wyllie hurting both candidates with his fiscal conservatism and social liberalism.
The poll from St. Leo University shows Crist taking 43 percent with Scott within the margin of error at 40 percent. Wyllie takes 8 percent while 9 percent remain undecided. When Wyllie is taken out of the mix, Scott moves up to tie Crist with each candidate at 45 percent.
“It appears as though Charlie Crist’s attacks against Rick Scott are working, as the race has swung away from the incumbent in the last few months,” said Frank Orlando, who teaches political science at St. Leo.
Orlando said Wyllie’s support could drop in the final days of the campaign, which could help Scott.
“Pre-election polls tend to overstate support for third-party candidates,” Orlando said. “When it comes time to cast their ballots, voters seem to settle on one of the two main parties for fear of ‘wasting’ their vote. It appears that Wyllie is drawing more support from Scott than Crist, and, if Wyllie is removed from the race, Scott gains 5 percent of the vote, while Crist only gains 2 percent and the poll is a dead heat.
“Despite the negative nature of the campaign, voters’ valuations of candidates haven’t really changed,” Orlando added. “This suggests that voters have had their minds made up for a while and that there is a very small group of undecided voters. The election seems certain to hinge on mobilization and the amount Wyllie can pull voters from Scott.”
In a three-candidate race, 73 percent of Republicans back Scott while 15 percent support Crist and 6 percent go for Wyllie. When the Libertarian is taken out of the mix, Scott takes 76 percent of Republicans while Crist remains with 15 percent. Crist gets 80 percent of Democrats while 11 percent of them support Scott and 5 percent are behind Wyllie. When the Libertarian is taken out of the equation, 81 percent of Democrats go for Crist and 13 percent back Scott.
Scott leads among voters outside the two major parties with 36 percent while Crist takes 32 percent of these voters and Wyllie commands the support of 14 percent of them. When Wyllie is out of the picture, Scott takes 45 percent of them and Crist garners 37 percent.
The poll shows Scott is treading water with 48 percent seeing him as favorable and the same percentage viewing him as unfavorable. Crist is slightly upside down with 47 percent seeing him as favorable and 49 percent viewing him in an unfavorable light. Wyllie is seen as favorable by 27 percent, unfavorable by 16 percent while 46 percent have never heard of him and 11 percent are not sure.
The poll of 500 likely voters was taken from Oct. 16-19 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
