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The Villages

Data shows we need to prioritize who gets the vaccine

John Kastura

I recently read several posted comments about suspected anomalies in the scheduling priorities for the Global Medical Response COVID vaccination site on County Road 466 for 65 and older people; to some, they appear to have a scheduling priority that is different from giving the first-registered priority. 

For the last 300 days, I have been analyzing the published COVID data from the state of Florida; I hope that Global Medical Response is given a higher priority to the older people in the group of 65 and older.

The following information is based on the data for the state of Florida over the 61-day period of Oct. 28 to Dec. 27. Over that period, there were 4,661 new COVID deaths and 473,861 new cases reported for all age groups; the ratio of deaths to cases (D/C) is 0.98 percent. However, for the 65 and older group the D/C ratio is 5.4 percent; for the group under 65, the ratio is 0.18 percent. This implies that, if you are in the 65+ group and test positive, you are 29 times more likely to die than if you were in the group under 65.  These numbers should make obvious why DeSantis gave priority to the 65+ group. 

Now let us look at the age subgroups in the 65-and-over group. The D/C ratio for the 65-74 years group is 2.3 percent; 75-84 years, 6.8 percent; 85+ years, 15.8 percent. The data implies that, if you are in the group of 85+ that tests positive for COVID, there is a 15.8 percent chance that you will die; whereas, if you in the group of 65-74 years old there is only a 2.33 percent chance that you will die.  In other words, if you in the 85+ group you are 6.8 times more likely to die if you have COVID than the 65-74 group.

I do not know how Global Medical Response is prioritizing the appointments; however, it should be obvious that they should be giving older people in the 65 and over group priority. 

Global Medical Response’s registration form did not request any pre-existing medical condition, like COPD; but, we know that those people should have priority for receiving the vaccine.

John Kastura is a resident of the Village of Belvedere.

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