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The Villages
Thursday, March 28, 2024

It’s clear that Trump cost his party the House

Marsha Shearer

The election isn’t over. Recounts are ongoing in Florida and results are still to be decided in other states. There are positive and not-so-hot results for both parties – but the big winners are Democrats and democracy.

Although it will be awhile before final numbers are in, more people voted in this election than any other midterm in history. In terms of percentage, 2018 is rivaled only by 1914.
At this point, based on data from Vox, The New York Times and others, an estimated 114 million ballots were cast – a massive jump from 83 million in 2014. That’s a big deal. And it’s thanks to Trump.

Many Democrats believe that President Trump drove Americans from both parties to the polls by saying, ‘A vote for (fill in the blank) is a vote for me.’
Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat, will be the first woman ever to represent Arizona in the Senate after her midterm election victory over Republican Martha McSally.

Trump drove both parties to the polls. Republicans came out to support him and Democrats came out to vote against him. He wasn’t on the ballot, but as he said, “a vote for (fill in the blank) is a vote for me.” The voters agreed and he lost big.

Here are the key takeaways reported by Pew Research, Vox, The New York Times, Business Insider, The Cook Political Report and others – with the caveat that it’s still early and while numbers may change, the results are likely to remain the same:

  • This election represents our diverse country more than any other before it. More than 200 candidates running for statewide and Congressional races were black, Latino, Asian American, Native American and LGBTQ. More than 80 of these candidates won (NBC News, Pew Research). The average age of the newbies in the House is a decade younger than their counterparts and there are more veterans in Congress than ever before.
  • There are many firsts. Michigan and Minnesota elected the first two Muslim women to Congress. Tennessee elected its first female senator, a Republican. Massachusetts elected its first black congresswoman. Kansas – very Red Kansas – elected the state’s first lesbian House member and one of two Native American House members. A woman beat Kris Kobach – the self-anointed leader in voter suppression – for Kansas governor. Colorado elected the country’s first openly gay governor. A Democrat won a Senate race in Arizona for the first time in 30 years and that new senator is a woman.
  • 105 women were elected to Congress – 86 Democrats and 19 Republicans. 42 are women of color and all are Democrats.
  • Millennials and Gen Y voted in record numbers, going from 17 percent of those eligible in the last election to 31 percent. But that’s still less than anticipated.
  • 20 STEM candidates were elected – folks with science, technology, engineering and math backgrounds. Hooray! Let’s hope they get assigned to the right committees.
  • In the first national vote since Trump’s election, there were 6 million more votes for Democrats than Republicans. While this “popular vote” count is fraught with caveats, it’s still worth noting.
  • Trump endorsed 75 candidates and 21 won. Obama endorsed 74 candidates and 39 won (Brookings.edu).
  • More than two dozen NRA-backed politicians lost their seats in the House. The new majority in the House includes dozens who, like rank and file members of the NRA, support stricter gun laws. This includes a winning candidate in Georgia who lost her son to gun violence.
  • Seven governor’s mansions switched from Red to Blue, including key states that gave Trump his Electoral College win. Eight legislative chambers flipped to Blue. This compares to an average of 12 chambers that change hands during midterms. That is a modicum of good news for Republicans.
  • Democrats gained the governor’s mansion and both legislative chambers in Colorado, Illinois, Maine, New Mexico, New York and Nevada, bringing their total number of trifecta states to 14. Democrats busted up Republican trifectas in Kansas, Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. Republicans still maintain 22 states where they control both legislative branches and governorships. With dozens of races still too close to call, Democrats won at least 370 new state legislative seats nationwide (Axios). They have a way to go to make up the 900 lost during the eight years of the Obama administration, but it’s a start.
  • Republican senators benefited from supporting Trump. They held their two-seat advantage and may expand their majority, depending on runoffs and recounts. This will be vital when it comes to fending off an impeachment conviction and securing confirmations on judgeships and staff positions.
  • Democrats needed to pick up 23 seats to gain a majority in the House. Their firm number now is 34, with the final count likely to approach 40 seats.
  • Although it appears Democrats lost three of their marquee races in Florida, Texas and Georgia, two of three are close enough to require either a runoff or recount. All three are Red States but clearly trended Blue in these races.
Michigan and Minnesota elected the first two Muslim women to Congress – Rashid Tlaib, left, a former Michigan state representative; and Ilhan Omar, Minnesota’s first Somali-American legislator.

This was the first nationwide election since Trump was elected and the results represent the Democratic Party’s best midterm performance since Watergate. This was not a “Blue Tsunami” but it was an ever-so-slowly building Blue Wave that became a flood.

It’s clear that Trump cost his party the House and helped to create new swing states.
In terms of future prospects, look to demographics. In general, Democrat voters were younger, more diverse, residing in large cities and suburbs, female and more educated. These groups are increasing.

Voters in Colorado made Democrat Jared Polis the nation’s first openly gay governor.

For Republicans, their voting strength was in rural areas. Their largest demographic is older white males. This group is decreasing.

So what are the implications for the future? The answer to this question predicts the near future of the Republican Party. Did Trump and the 2018 election help or hurt the Republican position with minorities and women?

And there you have it.

These next two years will determine whether we have a Republic by, for and of the people vs. an autocracy. They also will determine whether we have a government with three co-equal branches and not an Executive Branch that runs roughshod over the other two – with their acquiescence.

The people have spoken; time will determine who is listening.

Marsha Shearer is a Villager and a frequent contributor to Villages-News.com.

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