By announcing he was “actively exploring” running for president, Jeb Bush stole a march on other Republicans looking at 2016.
There will be two Republican primaries in 2016. One will feature the darlings of the Republican establishment like Bush, Mitt Romney and Chris Christie. The other will be a showdown to see who leads conservatives. If the establishment is divided with too many candidates, a strong conservative can win the nomination. But if the establishment choice is quickly determined, he will be able to run over the conservative opposition. Certainly that has been the case in recent years as Bob Dole, George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney ran over their conservative opponents.
Bush is a contender for the establishment nod. By declaring his intentions early, Bush can force Romney, whose name has been floated in recent weeks for yet another presidential try, to remain on the sidelines. Bush’s early move can help ensure Christie makes his decision quickly, even as potential donors, staffers and volunteers look over the former Florida governor as a possible candidate.
Marco Rubio also has to make a decision now that Bush looks likely to run. The Florida GOP and many of its donors prefer Bush to Rubio but the senator had the foresight enough to build his own fundraising operations. Now Rubio will have to think hard if he should support Bush or make a presidential bid of his own.
Of course there are plenty of potential Republican presidential candidates who are not impacted, at first, by Bush’s decision. The likes of Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Ben Carson aren’t hurt in the short run by Bush ramping up his campaign so early. But, if Bush’s early notice keeps Romney and Christie out of the fray, these conservatives and others like Rick Perry and Rick Santorum could end up dividing the right, allowing yet another establishment favorite to win the Republican nomination.
By announcing early, Bush has also signaled to his team — and his family’s — that he intends to run. That will keep them from defecting over to other Republicans. Certainly, Bush announcing that his leadership PAC will start in January shows them that he is serious about making a bid.
But there will be a down side to all of this. Bush has now made himself even more of a target, especially as conservatives will be lined up, ready to take him on. Heading into the holidays, conservatives will be focusing some of their fire on Bush, even as other establishment Republicans continue to stay out of the pool.
Still, by making his early move, Bush has started the game. Right now, the other Republicans have to make their own plays and show whether they want to get in or not.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
